by Vibrant Publishers (Author), Mark Koscinski (Author) * Introduction to Decision Making * Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets * Group Mechanics * Heuristics and Programmed Decisions * Probability and Base Rate Neglect Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to assess tough decisions they face- and eventually make the right choice- by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make. The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including: * Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory * Heuristics * Probability and Expected Value * Bayes Theorem * Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods * Game Theory * Prediction Markets * Brainstorming and Groupthink * Black Swan Events Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.